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Josef Fröhlich: Complex social systems: Innovation, processes, systems, policy (January 10, 2014)55:02

After a brief outline, Josef Fröhlich discusses increasing complexity as a necessary and irreversible social trend, presenting evidence of how technological Research & Development is increasingly collaborative and international. After presenting a variety of different definitions of complexity from different disciplines, Fröhlich stresses the notion that the behavior of complex systems is not predictable. This has profound implications for every kind of planning activity, especially with regard to technological innovation. Instead of linear forecasting, Fröhlich and his colleagues develop multiple, data-driven, narrative foresight scenarios. He discusses foresight techniques applied to long-range planning for the Austrian energy system, research coordination for the European Union, and the Austrian Science Center Network.

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